MARACOOS Prepares for Matthew

MARACOOS began coordinated preparations for Hurricane Matthew with our usual Friday Operations Call on September 30. Here is a quick review of discussion points and plans.

First an update on Hurricane Matthew. Full track for Matthew up to today, Oct 3, is shown below, intensifying as it crosses into the Caribbean and tracks along the coast of South America. It is slowly making the forecast right turn and is expected to head north towards the United States. Teledyne Webb Research (TWR) has their thermal glider Clark deployed south of St. Thomas with our friends from CariCOOS. It is reporting profiles to the IOOS Glider DAC where it then goes to the GTS so it can be assimilated by the operational forecast models.
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To get an idea of the size of the hurricane, we turn on the google earth cloud layer. Looks like Clark experienced some of the outer cloud bands as it passed by.

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Switching to the MARACOOS OceansMap, we see strong winds extending from Barranquilla, Columbia to north of Cuba, so Clark likely saw some of these strong winds. We can check out the CariCOOS buoys for more info.

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If we look at the full track of Matthew in OceansMap and overlay the Navy HyCOM Sea Surface Temperature we see Matthew is forecast to head north over a lot of nearly uniformly warm surface water.

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From here, an ensemble of model runs from spaghettimodels.com has Matthew heading offshore of Cape Hatteras and along the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) shelfbreak mostly on the deepwater side between us and our glider friends at BIOS in Bermuda.

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For Mid Atlantic Bight preparations, we checked in with the CODAR HF Radar network for the surface currents and it is doing well.

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A big focus of our response effort will be validation of the ocean models. These form the bottom boundary condition for the advanced atmospheric forecast models.

We see the surface temperatures from Global HyCOM, which in the Mid Atlantic are fairly warm with a colder filament running southward along the shelf break.

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And the bottom temperatures from ROMS, where the Mid Atlantic cold pool is eroding away with each storm.

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To investigate this further, two gliders are being deployed in the Mid Atlantic Bight. Josh Kohut is deploying glider RU28 for his work with NJDEP on dissolved oxygen concentrations and storms. Bill Boicourt is deploying UMaryland storm glider Striper for the CINAR Tempests project.